Key stats on bitcoin’s position in its Power Law channel right now — live-computed in your browser.
A read of where things stand, not a signal about where they go next. Every figure below shows its own derivation.
Today’s price divided by the trend price. Below 1× is below trend; floor and upper band are the channel’s historical edges?The Power Law channel is bitcoin’s long-run trend line and the floor (0.42×) and upper band (3×) it has historically stayed between. New here? See The Power Law..
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The Power Law trend at bitcoin’s age today — A·days5.77. Floor and upper band are the historical channel edges, 0.42× and 3× the trend.
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Continuous stretches below trend, measured as elapsed time across the Power Law series (not sample counts). This counts any unbroken time below the trend line — broader than the depth-matched wait-to-trend on Discount, or Premium?, so the record here can run longer without contradicting it. Below trend is ordinary; the useful question is how long. Has waiting paid off from here? →
The trend price (not the market price) doubling from today’s trend value — derived from the Power Law exponent alone: the trend doubles when bitcoin’s age grows by 21/5.77−1. Later doublings take longer in days because the same fraction of a larger age is more time.
The annual return implied only if today’s price reached the trend at the median (or slowest) historical wait from a depth like today’s — (trend(t+T)÷spot)1/T−1. Depth-matched the same way as Discount, or Premium?’s record. Not a rate to expect: it is conditional on reversion happening, and on how long it takes. The fastest resolutions are shown as a duration only, because annualising a months-long snap-back is not a meaningful rate.
— have closed below trend. Below trend is bitcoin’s ordinary condition, not an anomaly.
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Inverting the trend: the age at which the trend line equalled today’s price, read as a calendar date. Below trend, that date is behind us; above trend, it is when the trend is expected to reach today’s price.
Trend-to-trend: the trend price ten years from now against the trend price today, (trend(t+10y)÷trend(t))1/10−1 — independent of where price sits now. From today’s below-trend entry the from-today bar is higher; the Hurdle Rate computes that lens.
Where a tool already reads today’s channel position, these links carry it in.
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