Foundations
What Money Has To Be What Money Is For What Bitcoin Is The Bitcoin Synthesis Bitcoin Defined The Bitcoin Trilemma
The Arguments
Why Fiat Fails
The Half-Life Money Trees The Melting Ice Cube The Bitcoin Fixed Share
Why Bitcoin Endures
The Bitcoin Migration
Objections, Answered
Is Bitcoin a Bubble? Risks to Bitcoin
Holding & Spending
Paper Bitcoin vs. Real Bitcoin Bitcoin Spend and Replace
The Numbers
Models & Trends
Bitcoin & The Power Law Bitcoin & Metcalfe's Law The Bitcoin Doubling Ladder The Bitcoin Heatmap Bitcoin Bull & Bear Cycles New Discount, or Premium? New
Bitcoin vs. Other Assets
Bitcoin vs. The Stock Market BTC vs. Real Estate Updated BTC vs. Rental Property
Positioning & Strategy
Lump Sum or Ladder In? Your Bitcoin Deployment Plan Wait, or Deploy Now? New The Bitcoin Retirement Updated The Bitcoin Retirement Stress Test New Bitcoin Portfolio Allocation New Disciplined Rebalancing How Much Bitcoin? How Much Cash? New The Bitcoin Horizon
Living on Bitcoin
Borrowing Against Your Stack New Bitcoin-Backed Mortgages Living on Bitcoin Bitcoin and Fixed Income STRC Below Par New The Gallery Calculators About
indicates pages with interactive tools
 trend

STRC Below Par: Discount, or Warning?

A bitcoin-backed preferred stock, expected to trade near its $100 par value — yet trading below it.

A low price is either opportunity or cautionary information. This page shows you both readings of STRC’s discount — with arithmetic, not adjectives — and lets you watch the contest between the yield the market demands and the balance sheet the issuer can deploy against it — live.

STRC is Strategy’s variable-rate perpetual preferred — dividends in cash, a stated design goal of trading around $100 par, and a rate the board adjusts monthly to encourage it. Today it trades below par, and that cuts two ways: the same $12 coupon on a sub-$100 price is a higher effective yield — and a mechanism built to hold the price at par that isn’t holding it is telling you the market is pricing a risk. This page shows both readings but recommends neither. For where STRC sits among bitcoin-backed income instruments, see Bitcoin and Fixed Income, the parent page.

Where STRC sits right now

Price, effective yield and coverage ratios recompute live from bitcoin spot on each load; the dated constants below each carry an as of — badge.

STRC price

Last close, adjustable in the lens below.

Coupon at par

The stated annual rate on $100 par, paid semi-monthly.

Effective yield

 

The page in three numbers
One line of math, both directions

The below-par arithmetic

Every figure here is computed live from the price. The discount is a number; so is what closing it would be worth, and so is the case where it never closes.

Effective yield

Coupon ÷ price, against the coupon at par.

The discount, in time

How many months of coupon the gap to par is worth.

A buyer at par, one year on

The below-par lens

If — or when — STRC returns to par, the annualized return is the coupon plus the pull to par. Drag to choose how fast; the speed is your assumption, and the arithmetic is its consequence. Nothing here predicts a return to par.

$ Defaults to the last close; adjust to model any price.
6 months2.5 years5 years
The assumption-free case: you earn the effective yield, if the dividend holds.
Dividend scenario

Estimated: annualized return if it returns to par

 

Estimated: if it never returns to par

 

Compare against

Estimated annualized return at every return-to-par horizon. The amber line is STRC’s implied return under the chosen dividend scenario; overlays are opt-in. The curve flattens toward the effective yield as the horizon lengthens — the further out the return is pushed, the less the pull-to-par adds. An assumption, not a forecast.

More: demanded-yield ↔ price converter
Demanded-yield ↔ price converter

Price is simply the annual coupon divided by the yield the market demands. Set either side; the other follows. No scenario is endorsed — this is pure arithmetic that spans every camp’s.

% demanded $

The mechanism

The levers the issuer holds against a below-par price

A peg that isn’t pinning is information; a below-par preferred with a determined issuer is a measurable contest between the market’s demanded yield and the issuer’s balance sheet. The board below shows the issuer’s side, live — four levers, each a status readout with its full log and mechanics on demand. Bitcoin’s path sets the other side.

The rate lever
Full log & mechanics

The brackets are management policy — non-binding, modifiable or abandonable at any time without shareholder consent. Rate-setting is board sole discretion; dividends are payable only when declared.

Downside guardrails (the asymmetry) Max monthly cut is 25 bps plus any intra-month 1-month SOFR decline; the absolute floor is 1-month term SOFR; and cuts are legally barred while any cumulative dividends remain unpaid. Rate rises, by contrast, are unlimited and discretionary.

The supply lever
Full log & mechanics

The same fact, both camps No new STRC issued below $100 is stated discipline (the company’s framing) and economic necessity: below par, primary at-the-market issuance is uneconomic and the accumulation flywheel halts on its own (the Cipolaro / NYDIG reading).

The bid lever
Full log & mechanics

Retiring a $100-par share below par extinguishes a perpetual 12% obligation at a discount. What that costs and who pays for it is worked out in the cost accounting below — both readings.

The fuel gauge
Asset coverage of STRC live

How many times over the treasury covers what’s owed — three ways of counting.

Gross BTC ÷ STRC notional

The popular “dashboard” metric — treats STRC as the sole liability.

Standalone cushion

Net assets after senior claims ÷ STRC notional.

Full-waterfall coverage

Total liquid assets ÷ all claims senior-and-including STRC.

The popular metric omits the senior claims that sit ahead of STRC. The three numbers answer three different questions; the page shows all three. Which one to watch for which risk is in the cost accounting.

Full log & constants
The two questions

Why not simply own bitcoin? And why not simply hold Treasuries?

STRC sits between two things a holder could otherwise own outright — bitcoin on one shore, a Treasury on the other. Each shore has its question. If the case for STRC is “wait for bitcoin to recover and the price returns to par,” then the below-par bull case and the bitcoin bull case are the same bet with different payoff shapes — so why not own bitcoin? And if the case is a steady cash yield, a Treasury already pays one without the issuer or bitcoin risk — so why STRC? The table answers both, cell by cell. The bitcoin column is the live arithmetic from Discount, or Premium?; the Treasury column reuses the parent page’s 10-year yield.

  Bitcoin below trend STRC below par 10-year Treasury

Every cell that can be computed is computed from the model at current spot, not asserted. This directly interrogates the “unique third position” framing (Krueger) credited on the parent page — steelmanned, then examined.

The instrument invites one tactical read worth naming plainly: a holder rebalancing out of bitcoin might treat STRC as a yield-bearing waiting room instead of cash. The record’s complication is that the discount widened in the same weather the waiting room would be used for — the yield earned and the mark-to-market taken arrive correlated, not independent. The page names that; it does not tell you what to do with it.

The cost accounting

What each lever costs, and who pays

The events live as log rows on the board above. This section carries only the evergreen cost arithmetic of each lever — computed, dated, never narrated.

The rate lever

The bid lever, both ways

Which number to watch

Each failure mode has a figure on the board that would show it happening — so you can watch the number rather than be told a story. Each breakeven is the bitcoin price below which the treasury no longer covers everything owed at-or-above STRC, on that basis:

    A breach of that line is a condition, not an event — no covenant forces sales; what would matter is how long coverage stays impaired while dividends draw the reserve (~25 months at current rates).

    These replace the parent page’s older $33K / $21K thresholds, which predate the recent bitcoin sales and current holdings — recomputed here, not inherited. The full failure taxonomy (bitcoin winter, at-the-market closure, coverage erosion, rate spiral) lives on the parent’s Risks tab.

    The lever not pulled: suspension

    STRC dividends are non-mandatory — payable only when, as, and if declared — so full suspension is contractually available at any time. Because STRC is preferred equity, unpaid cumulative dividends accrue without triggering default or bankruptcy (BitMEX Research’s “built to bend, not break,” credited). Pulling it has a priced structure: arrears accrue as a growing claim, rate cuts become legally barred while any arrears remain unpaid, and the framework’s own capital engine depends on preferred markets staying open to the issuer. Against that, roughly 25 months of reserve at current rates makes it unnecessary today. During the June de-anchoring, suspension was openly debated in market coverage — raise, hold, or suspend were all treated as live possibilities. The Suspended toggle in the lens above shows what that case does to the arithmetic.

    STRC’s own short record

    Price against par, since issuance

    The lens, run over the instrument’s whole history. What it shows: the peg held for months, then broke with bitcoin’s drawdown — par is a magnet in calm and an aspiration in stress, on the evidence so far.

    A schematic of shape, not tick data — anchored to the known points (issuance near par, the all-time high, the all-time low, and today) and annotated with the rate changes and issuer actions along the way.

    The record is short — about one year. That is itself a risk disclosure, not a footnote: there is not yet enough history to know how STRC behaves across a full bitcoin cycle, and the floor that has held so far is evidence, not law. No instrument like this has existed before, and the entire record is one bitcoin drawdown — how STRC trades through a bull leg is unobserved, and cycles between discount and premium are plausible and untested.

    Sources, credits & disclosures

    Common questions

    Why is STRC trading below par?

    STRC is designed to trade near its $100 par, with a monthly dividend-rate mechanism meant to encourage it. A persistent discount despite that mechanism means the market is demanding a higher yield than 12% at par delivers — pricing in some mix of dividend risk, issuer stress from bitcoin's drawdown, and structural doubt. The discount reading is that the same $12 coupon on a lower price is a higher effective yield; the warning reading is that a peg which isn't pinning is itself information. This page shows both with arithmetic rather than choosing between them.

    Is STRC's dividend guaranteed?

    No. STRC dividends are cumulative but payable only when and if the board declares them — rate-setting is board discretion, and the published rate-bracket framework is management policy that can be modified or abandoned without shareholder consent. There are holder-friendly guardrails on the downside (cuts are capped per month, floored at term SOFR, and legally barred while any cumulative dividends remain unpaid), but none of that makes the dividend a guarantee. Full suspension is also contractually available — arrears would accrue (blocking any rate cut until paid) rather than trigger a default; the Suspended scenario in the interactive models it. The interactive lets you see the sustained, cut, and suspended cases side by side, including where the suspended case turns clearly negative.

    What does STRC's buyback program do?

    The issuer stood up a repurchase program that buys STRC below par. Retiring a $100-par share for less than $100 extinguishes a perpetual 12% obligation at a discount — at the disclosed average price that is roughly a 13.9% return on each buyback dollar, the accretion case. The same dollars are funded from outside the preferred (common-equity issuance and, conditionally, bitcoin sales), so the par defense is paid for elsewhere on the balance sheet. Both readings are computed on this page; neither is softened.

    Feedback or questions?

    Every page on this site has been improved by someone pushing on it. Ask a question, flag an error, or suggest what’s missing — it goes straight to the author, never published.

    Nothing you write here is posted publicly.
    Share this page
    X LinkedIn Facebook