Plan Your Bitcoin Retirement — Four Tools, Four Questions

Four questions, in order

Retiring on a bitcoin stack is one decision asked four ways — each tool below answers one of them, and together they’re the complete picture.

Build What does my plan look like? One plan in full model context. Size How much is enough? The threshold your plan sits on. Choose Which of my options? Two complete plans, side by side. Stress Does it survive bad luck? The plan you picked, under a crash.

Your inputs travel between these tools — the links each page offers carry the plan you are looking at, so you rarely re-type a number.

Build What does my plan look like?

The Bitcoin Retirement

Start here. One plan, in full model context: the accumulation years before you retire, the drawdown after, the Power Law bands around it, a 60/40 portfolio as a foil, and a year-by-year table you can reproduce line by line. It is the audit surface the other three are measured against.

Build a plan →

Size How much is enough?

Bitcoin Escape Velocity

A retirement portfolio is supposed to draw down. Under bitcoin’s historical growth curve there is a line past which yours runs up instead. This page finds where that line sits on each of your three numbers — the stack you would need, the withdrawal you could sustain, the earliest year that crosses — and how far your plan is from it.

Find the threshold →

Choose Which of my options do I take?

Compare Retirement Plans

Every plan is a choice against the plan you didn’t pick. Set two complete plans side by side — each with its own stack, retirement year and withdrawal — and read what the difference actually buys. Both share one set of assumptions on purpose, so no plan can win by being handed a friendlier market.

Weigh two plans →

Stress Does the winner survive bad luck?

Retirement Stress Test

The first three tools assume returns arrive in trend order. They do not. A crash early in retirement sells far more bitcoin to cover the same bill, and that stack does not come back when price does. This page drops a timed bear market into your plan and varies its depth, its timing and how it recovers.

Stress-test the plan →

Your inputs follow you. Each page hands your plan to the next one — stack, retirement year and withdrawal land in the next tool’s inputs rather than in a blank form. Every page also writes its state into the address bar, so a link you save or send comes back to exactly the plan you were looking at.

One model, stated plainly. All four run on the same projection engine against the same growth path, so they cannot disagree with each other about what a plan does. That growth path is the Power Law — a regression on bitcoin’s entire price history, used as a central-tendency assumption and not as a forecast. Its implied growth rate declines with time, which is why the honest version of every answer here is checked across a whole horizon rather than asserted from a single year.

Common questions

Where should I start with a bitcoin retirement?

With one plan, not four tools. Open The Bitcoin Retirement, put in a stack, a retirement year and what you want to draw, and read what comes out. Everything else here sharpens that first answer: how much is enough, which of two options to take, and whether it survives a bad market. The order on this page is the order the questions actually arrive in.

Do I have to re-enter my numbers on each page?

Mostly no. The tools carry your plan between them — the links each page offers put your stack, retirement year and withdrawal into the next page's inputs, so you are usually adjusting rather than retyping. Each page also writes its state into the address bar, so a link you save or share comes back to the same plan.

Are these forecasts?

No. Every figure across these four tools is a projection under the Power Law growth model — a description of bitcoin’s historical trend, not a promise about its future, and its implied growth rate declines with time. The model and its limits are documented on their own page. The assumptions are yours to change, which is the point of letting you change them.

Why is the crash test a separate page?

Because sequence-of-returns risk is a different question from plan design, and mixing them hides both. The first three tools ask what a plan does when returns arrive in trend order; the Stress Test asks what happens when they do not, and it varies crash depth, timing and recovery properly rather than dropping in one canned bad year.