When has price been here before?
Everything below is conditional on the power law holding · examined on the Power Law page → ·
The model, its fit, and what would break it live on the Power Law page, and that examination comes before this one.
Reject the model and this page has nothing for you; accept it and hold it loosely. What would break this is at the foot of the page rather than in a footnote.
Two numbers and one question. They stay in your browser, they change which record is read and how it is read, and they never turn a record into advice.
Stays on this page — never stored or sent.
Everything you enter stays in your browser — never stored on a server, never sent. The year and the income are remembered on this device only while their own toggle is on; your stack has no toggle and is forgotten when you close the tab.
Cleared. Nothing is left in this browser’s storage for this page.
This filters which modules render. It changes no figure and issues no recommendation.
Where this position sits · shown for every question
When has price been here before?
What return does buying here imply, if the trend holds?
Both figures are conditional arithmetic on the model, not a forecast. Neither says the floor will be reached. What would break this →
Pick a question above to see what the record says about it
There is capital to deploy. Has deploying at a position like this one beaten waiting for a lower entry?
Historical, at this position — not a prediction. The record contains no instance of the floor giving way: a limit of the sample, not evidence about the world.
All at once, or ladder in — and does starting a DCA now change that?
Historical, at this position — not a prediction. No engine conditions a DCA’s start date on position; a ladder begun today is the closest available comparison.
What is the discount worth, if it reverts?
A conditional projection, not a forecast: the reverting path is illustrative, with the baseline and never-reverts paths beside it. What would break this →
Selling here, meaning to rebuy lower — what has that done?
Historical, at this position — not a prediction. Raising cash for a bill or a deadline is a different question, and the record has no view on it.
If you run bands, how far are they from triggering here?
Where price sits now against the tool’s own standard settings — not a prediction, and not your bands unless you have set them there.
What stack would your target need, read from here?
A conditional projection, not a forecast: each figure names the case it assumes, with the alternative beside it. This models bitcoin alone; your other assets and income sit outside it. What would break this →
What have drawdowns from this zone looked like?
Historical, at this position — not a prediction. Shallow falls from here are close to arithmetic, so long as the floor holds: an entry near the floor has less room beneath it than one near the trend line. What would break this →
Modules appear when an engine exists to compute them from and their figures reproduce on the page that owns them. These do not exist yet, and a module that guessed would be worse than no module. The item bearing on your chosen question is marked.
A map, growing — never a matrix, padded.
This is the most model-dependent page on the site. Every figure above rests on one model, and there is no second method here quietly agreeing with the first — if the power law is not a real long-run structure, the position this page is organised around is not a position, and the visits it counts are not visits.
The floor is the model’s own tripwire. The Bitcoin Floor states the criterion in advance — how far below, for how long — and reports against it. That criterion is the one this page would fail with, and it is stated there rather than restated here so it has one home rather than two wordings.
The unsampled scenario is the important one. The record behind this page contains no instance of the floor giving way and staying gone, so nothing above is evidence that it cannot. The shared engine goes further and clamps sub-floor positions before matching entries at all, which means a sustained break is not merely rare in this data — it is structurally absent from it. An absence in a sample is not a property of the world, and breaks run in both directions.
Everything you enter stays in your browser. Nothing is sent to a server, nothing goes into an analytics event, and there is no account. The retirement year, the target income and your chosen question can each be remembered on this device if you switch that field’s toggle on — they are written to one browser storage key and to nowhere else, and “clear everything” removes that key outright rather than blanking it. Your stack is treated differently and more strictly: it has no toggle at all. It lives in the page for as long as the tab is open and is forgotten when you close it — never stored, never put in the link, never sent. That is the same rule every other page on this site that asks for a stack already follows.
To decide what to show you, and for nothing else. Choosing a question filters which modules render; it does not change a single number, and it does not produce a recommendation. Every module computes the same figures whichever question is selected — picking one is you saying what you came for, not the page issuing an answer. If you would rather see only the position read, “just looking” shows the always-on modules and nothing else.
No. Each module shows what the historical record says about a decision from a position like today’s — how often each path worked out, by how much, and the times it didn’t. Which path fits a particular situation, horizon and tolerance is the reader’s to decide, and the tool linked from each module exists so it can be tested with real numbers. The inputs personalise which record is shown and the arithmetic that reads from it; they never turn a record into advice.
Because every element on this site has exactly one canonical home, and this page is not the home of any of them. It owns the composition — your position, your situation, your question — and each module carries a compact echo plus a route. The full counter-case, the sensitivity, the controls and the sources live at the destination. A briefing is assembled from the file room and arranged for the person reading it; it never pretends to be the file room.
Technical analysis reads price against its own recent pattern. This page measures price against an independent yardstick — the long-run power law trend — the way equity investors measure price against earnings. The yardstick moves slowly, is fitted on the whole record, and is falsifiable: the Power Law page states what would break it. Whether that yardstick deserves trust is examined there, not assumed here.
Because a median over two cases is a statistic with the honesty removed. Where the record behind a module holds fewer than three independent episodes, the module names them individually and says so rather than publishing a distribution that would look far more solid than the evidence under it. Where a figure is pooled across many matched samples it is labelled as pooled, and the two are never spliced together — that would produce numbers which are individually defensible and collectively incoherent.
Because it is accurate rather than dismissive. Every figure here is conditional on the channel being a real long-run structure. A reader who has examined that claim and rejected it is not being told they are wrong — they are being told this particular map is drawn on a projection they do not accept, which makes it the wrong map for them. That is the page working as designed. The examination itself lives on the Power Law page.
Because timing, leverage and individual circumstance together make the most dangerous combination on the site, and this page deliberately does not condition borrowing on channel position. Bitcoin as Collateral covers what borrowing against a stack involves, on its own terms and without a position attached. That separation is a design decision, not an oversight.
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